Baseflow Prediction in Snow-Dominated Watersheds

Summary

Streams in the mountainous headwaters in the western United States depend heavily on groundwater, known as baseflow, which provides more than half of total streamflow. Measuring baseflow accurately is essential for managing water, but traditional methods often fail in snow-dominated mountain regions where flow paths are complex and high-water periods can last for months. Machine learning offers new opportunities, yet it is limited by data needs and difficulties in interpreting results. This project will combine physical models with machine learning to improve daily baseflow estimates in the Upper Colorado River Basin, including areas without measurements. We will also use new tools to explain how factors such as soil type and climate influence baseflow. Our goals are to reconstruct past baseflow, separate baseflow into different sources, and project future changes under drought conditions. The results will improve understanding of mountain water systems and support planning for a changing climate.

Funding Agency:

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Water Resources Research Act Program National Competitive Grants (104g General) through the Utah Center for Water Resources Research (UCWRR) at Utah Water Research Laboratory

Team:

Pin Shuai, Utah State University (PI)

Sakar Dhakal, Utah State University (PhD student)

Duration:

08/01/2026-07/31/2029

Total Funding:

$308,961